This paper develops a time series model for aggregate consumption to predict the U.S. personal saving rate. It then uses the model to test whether there has been a structural break in consumption behavior because of the 2008 financial crisis. Before the crisis, the personal saving rate was...

Band spectral regression with deterministic and stochastic trends is considered. It is shown that conventional trend removal by regression in the time domain prior to bank spectral regression leads to biased and inconsistent estimates of the parameters in a model with frequency dependent...

Belarus experienced a sequence of currency crises during 2009-2014. Our empirical results, based on a structural econometric model, suggest that the activist wage policy and extensive state program lending (SPL) conflicted with the tightly managed exchange rate regime and suppressed monetary...