The objective of this paper is to analyze how international cycles affect the real GDP cycle and so monetary policy decisions in Colombia. We estimate that cycles in world GDP, export prices and capital inflows are strongly associated with the Colombian business cycle both on impact and even...

This paper develops an error correction model with the aim of analysing the behaviour of prices in Kenya during 1974 -1996. In estimating the model, we first test for cointegration in the money and foreign exchange markets, using the Johansen procedure. The cointegrating vectors are then...

The paper describes the various ways in which the Prebisch-Singer thesis of tendency to deteriorating terms of trade of poorer countries went against a prevailing trend of optimistic expectations of convergence in per capita income levels among countries. The actual evidence in the context of a...

Long memory models have been successfully used to investigate the dynamic time-series behavior of inflation rates based on the CPI and WPI. However, almost no attention has been paid to import and export price inflation, nor to the terms of trade which they make up. This article investigates the...

This paper examines the controversy involving international trade by employing a simple model. It analyzes the effects of unilateral technological improvements in one entity on the welfare of that entity and its trading partners. Improvements in one country are irreversible and lead to...

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for...

A two-country model with monopolistic competition and price stickiness is employed to investigate the implications for macroeconomic stability and the welfare properties of three international policy arrangements: (a) cooperative, (b) non-cooperative and (c) monetary union. I characterize the...

This study assesses the response of the trade balance to exchange rate fluctuations across a large number of countries. Fixed-effects regressions are estimated for 87 countries on annual data from 1994 to 2010. The trade balance improves significantly after a real depreciation, and to a similar...

The small states of the Asia and Pacific region face unique challenges in raising their growth potential and living standards relative to other small states due to their small populations, geographical isolation and dispersion, narrow export and production bases, exposure to shocks, and heavy...

This paper analyzes the transmission of shocks and policies among and across the Nordic economies and the rest of the world. This spillover analysis is based on a pair of estimated structural macroeconometric models of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. We find...