This paper compares the GMM and measured expectations in estimating the conventional New Keynesian macro model for the Euro area and the United States. The use of measured expectations strongly reduces the importance of lagged output and inflation terms.

This paper deals with the problems of assessing the effects of fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union. Here, we face wide cross-country differences in key fiscal parameters, some of which may also be vary over time (business cycle). Moreover, these effects may also depend on trade...

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. We consider both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i.e. conventional standard deviation of individual point forecasts...

This article analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On the one hand, the question is how inflation expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these variables. The analysis makes use of a simple...

This paper deals with the question of how consumption taxes, especially the value-added tax, affect consumption prices. The analyses are based on data from EU countries for the period 1970–2004. The starting point is a conventional supply-demand analysis of the tax incidence problem. This...

This paper presents new evidence on the importance of financial innovations for the demand for currency. We use Finnish data on credit card transactions to estimate a currency demand equation which fits the data very well, implies meaningful elasticities and does not suffer from obvious...