This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non-parametric procedures are developed. The former are based on a class of asymmetrically weighted normal distributions whereas the latter employ asymmetric bootstrap simulations. Both...

First and higher order digits in data sets of natural and socio-economic processes often follow a distribution called Benford's law. This phenomenon has been used in many business and scientific applications, especially in fraud detection for financial data. In this paper, we analyse whether...

This paper reviews theory and evidence of the welfare effects of inflation from a costbenefit perspective. Basic models and selected empirical results are discussed. Historically, in assessing the welfare effects of inflation, the distortion of money demand played a prominent role. More...

The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is...

Die repressive Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB führt nach unseren Berechnungen zu geschätzten Zinsverlusten für die deutschen Sparer in einer Größenordnung von 70 Mrd. € pro Jahr. Die Zinsverluste sind höher als die finanziellen Belastungen durch Kapitalertragsteuer und Güterpreisinflation....

Für Zwecke des privaten Konsums werden ständig Gegenwarts- und Zukunftsgüter bewertet und gehandelt. Ein zuverlässiges und umfassendes Maß für die allgemeine Kaufkraft des Geldes und deren Veränderung sollte diesem Grundsachverhalt Rechnung tragen. Im Unterschied zu konventionellen...

For the purposes of private consumption present and future goods are constantly evaluated and traded. A reliable und comprehensive measure of the general purchasing power of money and its changes over time should take due account of this basic fact. In contrast to conventional statistical...

Zusammenfassung In Deutschland wurde die Berechnung von Volumenaggregaten in der Volks­wirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung kürzlich von der Festpreismethode auf die Vorjahrespreismethode mit Verkettung (Kettenindizes) umgestellt. Volumen­aggregate für Quartalsdaten werden in der amtlichen...

Summary The statistical overhang (carry-over effect) is the contribution of the previous year to growth in the current year. Practitioners use the statistical overhang routinely to pin down and rationalize short-term forecasts. This article analyses the statistical overhang ‘statistically’...