We compare the accuracy of our published GDP growth forecasts from our large macro model, SAFFIER, to those produced by VAR based models using both classical and Bayesian estimation techniques. We employ a data driven methodology for selecting variables to include in our VAR models and we find...

We investigate four sources of uncertainty with CPB’s macroeconomic model SAFFIER: provisional data, exogenous variables, model parameters and residuals of behavioural equations. Uncertainty is an inherent attribute of any forecast. We apply a Monte Carlo simulation technique to...

Official forecasts of international institutions are never purely model-based. Preliminary results of models are adjusted with expert opinions. What is the impact of these adjustments for the forecasts? Are they necessary to get 'optimal' forecasts? When model-based forecasts are adjusted by...

Economic growth is ultimately driven by advances in productivity. In turn, productivity growth is driven by R&D and by utilisation of the public knowledge pool. This public knowledge pool is generated by universities and public research institutions. Underutilisation by firms of results from...

This CPB Discussion Paper investigates the effect of receiving a grant from the Dutch Technology Foundation STW on the research output of an individual researcher. <strong>We find no evidence that STW grant receipt increases research output for the general funding programme (OTP) whereas the results...</strong>

This document describes Athena, CPB's multi-sector model of the Dutch economy and illustrates the mechanisms of the model by presenting a number of applications. The model is used for policy analyses that require a sectoral dimension and for the construction of long-run scenarios. Athena is a...

Long-run per capita economic growth is driven by productivity growth. Major determinants of productivity are investments in education and research, and the intensity of competition on product markets. While these ideas have been incorporated into modern growth theories and tested in empirical...

We explore whether a Financial Transactions Tax (FTT) is likely to correct the market failures that have contributed to the financial crisis, to what extent FTT succeeds in raising revenues, and how the FTT compares to alternative taxes in terms of efficiency. We find little evidence that the...