What drives the output gap? Contrary to standard agnostic statistical approaches, New Keynesian small open economy models allow decomposing the output gap into its shocks and confirm the conventional wisdom that most of the variation is due to foreign shocks. However, the risk premium shock also...

We examine how oil prices and exchange rates co-move using two measures of dependence: correlations and copulas and document two main findings for crude oil prices and a range of currencies: oil price–exchange rate dependence is in general weak, although it rose substantially in the aftermath...

This paper deals with the impact of the $/€ exchange rate on German exports in the period from 1995Q1 to 2008Q4. Our main aim is to identify 'pain thresholds' for German exporters. We rely on a non-linear model according to which suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the EXR...

This paper examines the relationship between oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate using detrended cross-correlation analysis. For a wide set of currencies in the periods before and since the onset of the recent global financial crisis, we characterized the oil price–exchange rate...

Despite the emerging consensus on the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) between trading countries in the long run, empirical evidence in favour of the PPP theory is scarce in data predominantly exposed to real shocks. This paper tests for PPP between Norway and its trading partners using...

I estimate the structural parameters of a small open economy model using data from Canada and the United States. The model improves upon the recent literature in open economy macroeconomics from an empirical perspective. I estimate parameters by using non-linear least squares at the...

This paper attempts to model the nominal and real exchange rate for Ireland, relative to Germany and the UK from 1975 to 2003. It offers an overview of the theory of purchasing power parity (Ppp), focusing particularly on likely sources of nonlinearity. Potential difficulties in placing the...

The source of changes in the wage differential between skilled and unskilled labor has been an important subject of debate for several decades. International trade and productivity growth are two main causes that have been suggested from large country studies. Recent research proposes education...

We develop a ten variable structural VAR model of the Australian economy for the period 1980 to 1995. The VAR methodology has not been widely applied in the Australian context, despite its popularity in quantitative macroeconomics internationally.

This paper evaluates the effects of financial globalization on growth and macroeconomic volatility, from 1984 to 2003, for a sample of 43 countries. Particular attention is given to those effects on the member countries of the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR): Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica,...