In this paper, we design a monetary policy for the euro area at the start of monetary union. We compare and ultimately combine Bayesian and worst-case analysis using four reference models developed at the ECB and estimated with pre-EMU synthetic data. We start by computing the cost of insurance...

In this paper, we examine the cost of insurance against model uncertainty for the Euro area considering four alternative reference models, all of which are used for policy-analysis at the ECB.We find that maximal insurance across this model range in terms of aMinimax policy comes at moderate...

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of monetary policy in a severe recession and deflation when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero. We compare two alternative proposals for ameliorating the effect of the zero bound: an exchange-rate peg and price-level targeting. We conduct this...

We analyze the economic performance of di§erent monetary policy strategies, or rules, in a low interest rate environment, using simulations with a DSGE model which has been estimated for the euro area. We study how often the e§ective lower bound of interest rates (ELB) is likely to bind, and...

We analyze the economic performance of di§erent monetary policy strategies, or rules, in a low interest rate environment, using simulations with a DSGE model which has been estimated for the euro area. We study how often the e§ective lower bound of interest rates (ELB) is likely to bind, and...

We analyze the implications of the time inconsistency problem for the Turkish monetary policy in the last two decades. After deriving the restrictions that the Barro and Gordon model imposes on a time series model for inflation and output, we show that the time inconsistency problem can explain...

In this paper, using monetary policy rules, we build a model which describes the fixing of the interest rate by the Bank of Central African's States (BEAC). First, with a GMM adapted for a forward looking rule, we propose a reaction function for this central bank. The result shows that from 1986...

We study the effects of optimized monetary policy in a semi-structural, estimated small open economy in situations where the policymaker has either complete or less than complete confidence in the model being free from misspecification errors. We use the robust control techniques developed by...