This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models...

The paper compares the di¤erent timing and magnitude of mon-etary shocks across European countries. The problem the European Central Bank faces in setting a single monetary policy rule is analyzed starting from the di¤erences in the monetary transmission mechanism across EMU members. The...

The paper attempts to exploit whether monetary authorities have a different behaviour during recession and expansion. To this end, a multivariate extension of Hamilton Markov-switching model is adopted. First, regime dependent Taylor-type rules are estimated for the Euro Area and the United...

This paper investigates the out-of-sample forecast performance of a set of competing models of exchange rate determination. We compare standard linear models with models that characterize the relationship between exchange rate and its underlying fundamentals by nonlinear dynamics. Linear models...

This paper investigates the relationship between the euro-dollar exchange rate and its underlying fundamentals. First, we develop a simple theoretical model in which chartists and fundamentalists interact. This model predicts the existence of different regimes, and thus non-linearities in the...

This paper explores the role that inflation forecasts play in the uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of alternative monetary rules on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We use the inflation forecasts of 8 competing models in a standard Bayesian VAR to analyse the size...

This paper analyses whether active labour market policies (ALMPs) have differing effects on unemployment and employment dynamics according to the particular region in which they are implemented. To this end, it analyses alternative theoretical and econometric models thought to capture the...

The aim of the research is the evaluation of the exchange rate of the Euro after the first six months of its existence. The main interpretative hypotheses of the research can be summarised in the following points: (i) the evolution of the Euro external value is strictly connected with the...

We assess the perception of professional forecasters regarding the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy measures undertaken by the U.S. Federal Reserve after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Using individual survey data, we analyse the changes in forecasting of bond yields around the...