In this paper, we apply a collection of parametric (Normal, Normal GARCH, Student GARCH, RiskMetrics and high-frequency duration models) and non-parametric (empirical quantile, extreme distributions models) Value-at-Risk (VaR) techniques to intraday data for three stocks traded on the NewY ork...

Recent evaluations of active lab or market policies are not very optimistic about their effectiveness to bring unemployed back to work. An important reason is that unemployed get locked-in, that is they reduce their effort to find a regular job. This paper uses an administrative dataset from the...

This paper argues that number of deaths in a conflict can be a measure of duration and demonstrates that there are information gains to this approach. The well-known conflict database of International Peace Research Institute is compared with the database of Center for Systemic Peace which...

Dynamic discrete choice panel data models have received a great deal of attention. In those models, the dynamics is usually handled by including the lagged outcome as an explanatory variable. In this paper we consider an alternative model in which the dynamics is handled by using the duration in...

This paper aims at introducing the plurality of search methods in a job search model with endogenous intensity. Search methods are integrated through a function of information production, which influences both the offer rate and search costs. The equilibrium proprieties of the model lead to an...

This paper provides new developments in job search theory, incorporating a duality in search strategies which compose the offer rate. Two strategies are modelled. A first one, called passive strategy, consists in searching exclusively in the spatial area of the public employment agency. The...

In the last decades female permanent sterilisation became the most used contraception method in Mexico. During this time the demand for pills, condoms and other short-term contraceptives fell consistently. The shift in the demand for contraceptives raises concerns among demographers that the...

We study the product turnover in an industry and, in particular, the survival of new products. The data set consists of monthly sales of all products sold in the Swedish beer market over the time period of 1989-1995. The death rates of newly introduced products are high - out of 199 products an...

[EN] Aitkin and Clayton (1980) proposed to analyze duration models using generalized linear models. In this work we extend that methodology allowing for some nonspecified covariable effect. The model we propose is a semiparametric generalized linear model, with a parametric component to specify...

This paper discusses how specification of probabilistic models for multistate duration data generated by individual choices should be justified on a priori theoretical grounds. Preferences are assumed represented by random utilities, where utilities are viewed as random also to the agent...