This article aims to identify the most relevant variables that allow through a neural network model (RNA), with supervised learning, in a kind of error correction and feedforward perceptron multilayer architecture to achieve the best predictors of low risk, in the process of microcredit....

When forming and updating beliefs about future life outcomes, people tend to consider good news and to disregard bad news. This tendency is assumed to support the optimism bias. Whether this learning bias is specific to ‘high-level' abstract belief update or a particular expression of a more...

This paper presents a choice model based on a model for the behavior of brain cells that is based on neurological findings. The paper shows that it is possible to define choice as the result of a series of interconnected cellular processes, instead of framing the problem from the point of view...

The tendency of people to think of money in nominal, rather than real, terms is now well documented by recent empirical data. In particular, experimental and neurobiological data provide new insights on the individual and subindividual (neurobiological processes) anchoring of money illusion. The...

The social and neural sciences share a common interest in understanding the mechanisms that underlie human behaviour. Yet, interactions between neuroscience and social science disciplines remain strikingly narrow and tenuous. We illustrate the scope and challenges for such interactions using the...

We assess whether a cardinal model can be used to relate neural observables to stochastic choice behaviour. We develop a general empirical framework for relating any neural observable to choice prediction, and propose a means of bench-marking their predictive power. In a previous study,...

Density forecasts of euro area inflation are a fundamental input for a medium-term oriented central bank, such as the European Central Bank (ECB). We show that a quantile regression forest, capturing a general non-linear relationship between euro area (headline and core) inflation and a large...

We apply the boosting estimation method to investigate to what ex-tent and at what horizons macroeconomic time series have nonlinearpredictability coming from their own history. Our results indicate thatthe U.S. macroeconomic time series have more exploitable nonlinearpredictability than...

Density forecasts of euro area inflation are a fundamental input for a medium-term oriented central bank, such as the European Central Bank (ECB). We show that a quantile regression forest, capturing a general non-linear relationship between euro area (headline and core) inflation and a large...

After the creation of the European Monetary Union (EMU), both the European Commission (EC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are focusing more and more on the evolution of the EMU as a whole, rather than on single member countries. A particularly relevant issue from a policy point of view is...