This paper constructs a composite index of leading indicators of New Zealand employment. The choice of variables and … their weights in the composite index are determined by their concordance with employment. The composite index is included in … an indicator model to forecast quarterly employment growth. The indicator model explains about 67 percent of the …

represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic …-horizon forecasting and structural models should be used in long-horizon forecasting. Our paper compareds both state-of-the art data …

movements of key macroeconomic variables, i.e., CPI inflation, GDP, employment, and an output gap. In particular, questions … encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an … output gap and adds information to the benchmark forecasts for GDP and employment. …

This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing and forecasting price dynamics in four different …, Italy and Spain - and the euro area as a whole. By modelling prices together with real activity, employment and wages, we …

pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …