This paper makes an attempt to distinguish between financial structures and monetary policies that have the potential to amplify real disturbances, and thereby to lead to crises par excellence, and those where fluctuations have risk sharing features, and do not aggravate real shocks. After...

The paper studies the implicit debt burden of the Hungarian social security system, and especially its changes after certain real and hypothetical reform measures. It uses a computer simulation of a demographic model. The most important results are the following. The Hungarian implicit debt...

In this paper UK data is used to compare two potential sources of information regarding market uncertainty about future short interest rates. One is the so-called risk-neutral density function (RND) derived from interest rate option prices, the other is the distribution of bids submitted to an...

Accession to the Economic and Monetary Union is one of the most important steps in Hungary's European integration, which will entail abandoning the national currency and adopting the euro as domestic legal tender. For Hungary as a new member state in the EU, introduction of the euro will not be...

In this paper we investigate the possible effects of fiscal tightening in Hungary from two perspectives. First, simulations in an estimated neo-Keynesian model are used to characterise the effects of different scenarios for fiscal consolidations. We show that the composition of fiscal shocks is...

The paper deals with the topology of the Hungarian large-value transfer system, known as VIBER. The paper is generally descriptive in nature, the goal of the research being the assessment of the payment topology. A graph theoretical framework is applied; the graph representation allows a...

This study examines overnight (O/N) interest rates which constitute the short end of the yield curve and the factors which have an impact on such rates. The MNB, unlike several other central banks, does not have a direct overnight interest rate target; it does, however, limit the divergence of...

Market analysts and central banks often use the implied volatility of FX options as an indicator of expected exchange rate uncertainty. The aim of our study is to investigate the limits of this statistic. We present some key factors that may deviate the value of implied volatility from the...

This paper provides an overview of the antecedents, main drivers and spillover mechanisms of the turbulence emanating from the US sub-prime credit market in the summer of 2007. Its primary goal is to discuss the facts and interrelationships featured in the various analyses and statistics in a...

Central bankers wish to ensure worldwide that large-value transfer systems, as a component of the key market infrastructure, exhibit sufficiently robust levels of operational resilience. We focus on the operational resilience of the Hungarian real time gross settlement system, known as VIBER....