Practitioners have long tried to exploit the predictability of the option implied volatility smile. Motivated by the recent developments in the literature focusing on market-based option pricing arguments, this paper proposes the introduction of trading volume into a vector autoregressive (VAR)...

Implied volatility is a key value in financial mathematics. We discuss some of the pros and cons of the standard ways to compute this quantity, i.e. numerical inversion of the well-known Black–Scholes formula or asymptotic expansion approximations, and propose a new way to directly calculate...

This paper provides empirical evidence that combinations of option implied and time series volatility forecasts that are conditional on current information are statistically superior to individual models, unconditional combinations, and hybrid forecasts. Superior forecasting performance is...

We consider which readily observable characteristics of individual stocks (e.g., option implied volatility, accounting data, analyst data) may be used to forecast subsequent extreme price movements. We are the first to explicitly consider the predictive influence of option implied volatility in...

The Australian federal election cycle, which occurs approximately every 3 years, causes much media attention and invokes indecision regarding investment decisions in both the real economy and financial markets. This paper constructs measures of political uncertainty and formally explores their...

An approximate formula for the Black–Scholes implied volatility is given by means of an asymptotic representation of the Black–Scholes formula. This representation is based on a variable change that reduces the number of meaningful variables from five to three. It is stated clearly which is...

We consider a stochastic volatility model with Lévy jumps for a log-return process Z=(Zt)t≥0 of the form Z=U+X, where U=(Ut)t≥0 is a classical stochastic volatility process and X=(Xt)t≥0 is an independent Lévy process with absolutely continuous Lévy measure ν. Small-time expansions, of...

Implied volatilities of interest rate derivatives present some distinctive features, like the inverse relation with the underlying rates and the humped or decreasing shape of their term structure. The objective of this paper is to analyze and explain such features in a Gaussian framework. We...

The paper examines the medium-term forecasting ability of several alternative models of currency volatility. The data period covers more than eight years of daily observations, January 1991 to March 1999, for the spot exchange rate, 1- and 3-month volatility of the DEM/JPY, GBP/DEM, GBP/USD,...