We identify the individual resources that predicted psychological resilience during the COVID-19 lockdown. Using UK data, we compare psychological distress observed before COVID-19 with distress measured in April, May, and June 2020. After matching respondents on key characteristics, we find...

We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature. Impulse response functions are then estimated using local projections. This...

Understanding who in the population is psychologically resilient in the face of major life events, and who is not, is important for policies that target reductions in disadvantage. In this paper we construct a measure of adult resilience, document its distribution, and test its predictability by...

The paper consists of two parts devoted to the cause-effect dynamic models. In each part of the deterministic properties of the dynamic version of the model are presented. Thus, each of the considered dynamic models can be presented in the form of an equivalent for it the switching trend....

In a recent paper, Fajardo et al. (2009) propose an alternative semiparametric estimator of the fractional parameter in ARFIMA models which is robust to the presence of additive outliers. The results are very interesting, however, they use samples of 300 or 800 observations which are rarely...

We analyze di¤erent residual-based tests for the null of no cointegration using GLS detrended data. We …nd and simulate the limiting distributions of these statistics when GLS demeaned and GLS detrended data are used. The distributions depend of the number of right-hand side variables, the...

Perron and Rodríguez (2003) claimed that their procedure to detect for additive outliers (Tau-d) is powerful even when we have departures from the unit root case. In this note, we use Monte-Carlo simulations to show that Tau-d is powerful when we have ARFIMA(p; d; q) errors. Using simulations,...

This note analyzes the empirical size of the augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF) statistic proposed by Perron and Rodríguez (2003) when the errors are frac- tional. This ADF is based on a searching procedure for additive outliers based on …rst-differences of the data named Tau- d. Simulations...

This note analyzes the empirical size of the augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF) statistic proposed by Perron and Rodríguez (2003) when the errors are fractional. This ADF is based on a searching procedure for additive outliers based on first-differences of the data named td. Simulations show...

We examine the Stein-rule shrinkage estimator for possible improvements in estimation and forecasting when there are many predictors in a linear time series model. We consider the Stein-rule estimator of Hill and Judge (1987) that shrinks the unrestricted unbiased OLS estimator towards a...