We use a micro-founded macroeconometric modeling framework to investigate the design of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the economy. We apply Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters of the baseline specification using postwar U.S. data and...

We provide analytical and empirical underpinnings for the notion that the financial fragility of the aggregate economy depends on the balance sheet conditions of the corporate sector. First, we obtain time-varying semiparametric estimates of the relationship between the debt-equity ratio and the...

This paper shows that money can play an important role as an information variable when initial output data are measured with error and subject to revision. Using an estimated model of the euro area we find that current output estimates may be substantially improved by including money growth in...

We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty: such rules respond to the one-year ahead inflation...

The previous literature on optimal monetary policy has focused mainly on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with a constant aggregate capital stock (cf. Woodford 1999; Erceg et al. 2000). In this paper, we analyze the monetary policy implications of endogenous capital accumulation. We...