This paper proposes a new modelling framework for electricity forward markets based on so-called ambit fields. The new model can capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets and is highly analytically tractable. We give a detailed account on the probabilistic properties of the...

We propose a multivariate realised kernel to estimate the ex-post covariation of log-prices. We show this new consistent estimator is guaranteed to be positive semi-definite and is robust to measurement noise of certain types and can also handle non-synchronous trading. It is the first estimator...

In a recent paper we have introduced the class of realised kernel estimators of the increments of quadratic variation in the presence of noise. We showed this estimator is consistent and derived its limit distribution under various assumptions on the kernel weights. In this paper we extend our...

Consider a semimartingale of the form Y_{t}=Y_0+\int _0^{t}a_{s}ds+\int _0^{t}_{s-} dW_{s}, where a is a locally bounded predictable process and (the volatility) is an adapted right - continuous process with left limits and W is a Brownian motion. We define the realised bipower variation process...

With the aim of modelling key stylized features of observational series from finance and turbulence a number of stochastic processes with normal inverse Gaussian marginals and various types of dependence structures are discussed. Ornstein - Uhlenbeck type processes, superpositions of such...

This paper analyses multivariate high frequency financial data using realised covariation. We provide a new asymptotic distribution theory for standard methods such as regression, correlation analysis and covariance. It will be based on a fixed interval of time (e.g. a day or week), allowing the...

We present some new asymptotic results for functionals of higher order differences of Brownian semi-stationary processes. In an earlier work we have derived a similar asymptotic theory for first order differences. However, the central limit theorems were valid only for certain values of the...

This paper looks at some recent work on estimating quadratic variation using realized variance (RV)-that is, sums of M squared returns. This econometrics has been motivated by the advent of the common availability of high-frequency financial return data. When the underlying process is a...

In this paper we provide an asymptotic distribution theory for some non-parametric tests of the hypothesis that asset prices have continuous sample paths. We study the behaviour of the tests using simulated data and see that certain versions of the tests have good finite sample behaviour. We...