This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide range of window sizes. We show that the tests...

We compare local and global polynomial solution methods for DSGE models with Epstein- Zin-Weil utility. We show that model implications for macroeconomic quantities are relatively invariant to choice of solution method but that a global method can yield substantial improve- ments for asset...

GMO is a well known mutual fund company that serves wealthy clients. The minimum investment for a mutual fund account is 10 million dollars. GMO’s web site is a font of useful and entertaining information. Should the Vanguard investor who can’t afford to invest with GMO be envious of the...

Each month, GMO publishes on the web its predictions of the real rate of return for various asset styles over the next seven years. Its web library retains its quarterly predictions, dating back to the end of the second quarter of 2000. This inquiry explores whether they predict the performance...

The Muslims of South Asia made the transition to modern economic life more slowly than the region’s Hindus. In the first half of the twentieth century, they were relatively less likely to use large-scale and long-living economic organizations, and less likely to serve on corporate boards....

This paper analyzes the importance of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in explaining US macroeconomic fluctuations, and establishes new stylized facts. The novelty of our empirical analysis is that we jointly consider both monetary and fiscal policy, whereas the existing literature only focuses...

This paper investigates whether oil price shocks have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S Dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies and clean data, we …find paradoxically little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange...

Following Kreps (1979), I consider a decision maker who is uncertain about her future taste. This uncertainty leaves the decision maker with a preference for flexibility. When choosing among menus containing alternatives for future choice, she weakly prefers menus with additional alternatives....

GMO offers a mutual fund which is free to change its composition of assets in accordance with expected risks and returns. It is called the GMO Benchmark Free Allocation Fund III, ticker: GBMFX. This study asks whether one could obtain the same performance by adjusting one’s holdings of...

We establish that in the Prisoners’ Dilemma, the model of Daley and Sadowski (2013) is logically distinct from three models that employ well-known forms of other regarding preferences - altruism (Ledyard, 1995; Levine, 1998), inequity aversion (Fehr and Schmidt, 1999), and reciprocity (Rabin,...