Although there exists a vast number of articles addressing the predictability of stock market return, most of the proposed models rely on accurate forecasting of the level (i.e., value) of the underlying stock index or its return. In most cases, the degree of accuracy and the acceptability of...

Few proposed types of derivative securities have attracted as much attention as option contracts on volatility. Grunbichler and Longstaff (1996) proposes a model to value options written on a volatility index. Their model does not take into account the switching regime and asymmetry properties...

In recent years, there has been a growing trend of using multiobjective techniques. The primary advantage of using multiobjective techniques in decision making is, as stated in Spronk (1981), quot;that most of these (single objective) models and methods are unsuitable for decision situations in...

Previous work on crude oil price modeling has generally focused on two theoretical approaches, either the optimal control analysis of pricing of a depletable resource, or OPEC as a partial monopolist setting oil prices to maximize net present value. Neither has been wholly satisfactory. We...

The skewness of the conditional return distribution plays a significant role in financial theory and practice. This paper examines whether conditional skewness of daily aggregate market returns is predictable and investigates the economic mechanisms underlying this predictability. In both...

The existence and the enforcement of insider trading laws in stock markets is a phenomenon of the 1990s. A study of the 103 countries that have stock markets reveals that insider trading laws exist in 87 of them, but enforcement - as evidenced by prosecutions - has taken place in only 38 of...

We study the impact of analyst forecasts on prices to determine whether investors learn about analyst accuracy. Our test market is the crude oil futures market. Prices rise when analysts forecast a decrease (increase) in crude supplies. In the 15 minutes following supply realizations, prices...

We develop a new, unlevering approach to document how well financial and operating leverage explain volatility asymmetry on a firm-by-firm basis. Volatility asymmetry means that when stock price drops (rises), the volatility of the returns typically increases (decreases). Our evidence, using a...

In this study, we examine the forecastability of a specific neural network architecture called General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) and compare its performance with a variety of forecasting techniques, including Multi-Layered Feedforward Network (MLFN), multivariate transfer function, and...