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Nie zuvor war konjunktureller Gleichlauf im Abschwung so hoch
Kuzin, Vladimir; Hillebrand, Martin - In: DIW-Wochenbericht : Wirtschaft, Politik, Wissenschaft 76 (2009) 36, pp. 622-626
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009863381
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Analysing convergence in Europe using the non-linear single factor model
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir - In: Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for … 41 (2011) 2, pp. 343-370
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009265197
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Pitfalls of post-model-selection testing: experimental quantification
Demetrescu, Matei; Hassler, Uwe; Kuzin, Vladimir - In: Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for … 40 (2011) 2, pp. 359-373
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008887110
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Testing for Convergence in Stock Markets: A Non-linear Factor Approach
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Erdogan, Burcu; Kuzin, Vladimir - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2009
This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US over the period 1973-2008. We carry out the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008461820
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Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir - In: Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer … 225 (2005) 1, pp. 22-43
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005668440
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Testing for Convergence in Stock Markets : A Non-Linear Factor Approach
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013
This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US over the period 1973-2008. We carry out the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095490
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Asymmetric Monetary Policy Effects in Germany
Kuzin, Vladimir; Tober, Silke - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2004
In a small structural model we find asymmetries in the effects of monetary policy in Germany depending on whether the economy is in an upswing or a downswing. These two different regimes are also identified using a Markov-switching model and the Kalman filter. Our results indicate that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963955
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Do Leading Indicators Help to Predict Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2002
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963987
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Sommergrundlinien 2010
Fichtner, Ferdinand; Bernoth, Kerstin; Bremus, Franziska; … - In: DIW Wochenbericht 77 (2010) 26, pp. 2-28
Das DIW Berlin prognostiziert ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 1,9 Prozent im Jahresdurchschnitt 2010 und 1,7 Prozent im Jahresdurchschnitt 2011. Die Inflation bleibt mit knapp 1,5 Prozent im Prognosezeitraum moderat. Nach einem schwachen ersten Quartal, in dem die konjunkturelle Entwicklung durch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008542910
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Frühjahrsgrundlinien 2010
Dreger, Christian; Belke, Ansgar; Bernoth, Kerstin; … - In: DIW Wochenbericht 77 (2010) 15, pp. 2-26
Das DIW Berlin rechnet für 2010 und 2011 mit einem Wachstum des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 1,7 und 1,8 Prozent. Damit setzt die deutsche Wirtschaft ihren moderaten Erholungskurs der vergangenen Quartale fort. Zwar hat die Produktion im Winter überraschenderweise nur stagniert, dies ist...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008552730