There is reliable evidence that simple rules used by traders have some predictive value over the future movement of foreign exchange prices. This paper will review some of this evidence and discuss the economic magnitude of this predictability. The profitability of these trading rules will then...

Complexity research draws on complexity in various disciplines. This Handbook provides a comprehensive and current overview of applications of complexity theory in economics. The 15 chapters, written by leading figures in the field, cover such broad topic areas as conceptual issues,...

Over the last twenty or more years a different way of doing economics has been slowly emerging. It goes by several names: complexity economics, agent-based computational modeling, generative economics, Santa Fe economics, and each of these has its own style, its own followers, and its own...

It is often taken for granted that as systems evolve over time they tend to become more complex. But little is understood about the mechanisms that might cause evolution to favor increases in complexity over time. This paper proposes three means by which complexity tends to grow as systems...

This paper draws on modern psychology to argue that as humans, in economic decision contexts that are complicated or ill-defined, we use not deductive, but inductive reasoning. That is, in such contexts we induce a variety of working hypotheses or mental models, act upon the most credible, and...