We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...

<heading id="h1" level="3" format="inline" implicit="no">Abstract: </heading>We measure and evaluate the performance of a number of Value-at-Risk (VaR) methods using a portfolio based on the foreign exchange exposure of a small open economy (Ireland) among its trading partners. The sample period highlights the changing nature of Ireland's exposure to risk...

We analyse the ability of the conditional asset pricing models to explain the cross-sectional variation in UK stock returns. We examine conditional versions of the Sharpe-Linter CAPM and the Fama-French three-factor model. The results indicate that the conditional single-factor model is rejected...

In the empirical portfolio choice literature it is often invoked that through the choice of predictors that may closely track business cycle conditions and market sentiment, simple Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models could produce optimal strategic portfolio allocations that hedge against the...

"We examine the influence of US, UK and German macroeconomic and financial variables on the stock returns of two relatively small, open European economies, Ireland and Denmark. Within a nonlinear framework, we allow for time variation via regime switching using a smooth transition regression...

We investigate the influence of changes in UK monetary policy on UK stock returns and the possible reasons behind such a response. Firstly, we conduct an event study to assess the impact of unexpected changes in monetary policy on aggregate and sectoral stock returns. The decomposition of...

We analyse the ability of the consumption-based capital asset pricing model (C-CAPM) using traditional power utility, the recursive preferences model proposed by Epstein and Zin and two habit formation specifications proposed by Abel and Campbell and Cochrane to explain asset returns at both the...