We assess the extent and speed of exchange rate pass-through in the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). We do this in the framework of vector autoregressive regressions, utilising impulse functions and variance decompositions with monthly data that starts in 1999 in order...

The likelihood of a banking crisis appears to be higher in fast-developing countries. An explanation is provided in a Diamond and Dybvig framework, where banks are vehicles of consumption-smoothing, offering insurance against shocks to the consumption path of consumers. The theoretical model...

This paper uses rounds 5 to 8 of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to analyse the dynamics of moonlighting of working-age population. We find that moonlighting is transitory, and is generally associated with career shifts. Those respondents who expressed a desire to switch jobs...

This paper applies an analytical paradigm of institutional economics to the transition of the Russian banking sector, focusing on the interplay between ownership change and institutional change. We find that the state’s withdrawal from commercial banking has been inconsistent and limited in...

The paper analyzes the experiences and developments of Hungarian banking sector during the transitional process from a centralized economy to a market-oriented system. The paper identifies that early reorganization initiatives, flexible approaches to privatization, and liberal policies towards...

This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real economy. We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People’s Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail sales and exports. Our bivariate vector...

The objective of the paper is to study Russia's pattern of specialisation in the manufactures trade since 1998. Russia's global trade balance for manufactures is rapidly deteriorating. However, the trade pattern in manufactures should be differentiated according to Russia’s main trading...

The paper investigates the ability of monetary authorities to keep the real exchange rate undervalued over the long run by implementing a policy of accumulating foreign exchange reserves. We consider a model of a three-sector, small, open economy, where the central bank continuously purchases...

This paper considers trade specialisation in Russia, examining changes in trade patterns at the sectoral level over the transition period. Trade based on inter-industry specialisation and intra-industry trade (IIT) are empirically distinguished using the Aquino and Grubel-Lloyd indices. The...

This paper shows empirically that China’s trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi, although the size of the surplus is such that exchange rate policy alone will be unable to address the imbalance. One of the main reasons why the reduction...