We present a new composite leading indicator of economic activity in mainland China, es-timated using a dynamic factor model. Our leading indicator is constructed from three se-ries: exports, a real estate climate index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index. These series are found to share a...

This paper considers the persistent differences in economic performance across Chinese regions. We introduce a new county- and city-level dataset that spans all of mainland China and provides a detailed view of Chinese regional growth over the period 1997-2005. Non-parametric kernel density...

This paper considers the persistent differences in economic performance across Chinese regions. We introduce a new county- and city-level dataset that spans all of mainland China and provides a detailed view of Chinese regional growth over the period 1997-2005. Non-parametric kernel density...

We present a new composite leading indicator of economic activity in mainland China, estimated using a dynamic factor model. Our leading indicator is constructed from three series: exports, a real estate climate index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index. These series are found to share a...

This paper takes seriously the idea that the coefficients of a VAR and the variance of shocks may be time-varying and so employs a Markov regime-switching VAR model to describe and analyse the time-varying credibility of Hong Kong’s currency board system. The endogenously estimated discrete...

In the wake of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, the macroeconomic discussion has returned to the topic of proactive macroprudential policies. One proactive approach, the use of loan-to-value (LTV) policies to curb booming property markets, has long been used by Hong Kong’s monetary...

With recovery from the global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010, inflation emerged as a major concern for many central banks in emerging Asia. We use data observed at mixed frequencies to estimate the movement of Chinese headline inflation within the framework of a state-space model, and then...

This paper accounts for China’s economic growth since 1980 in a unified endogenous growth model in which a sequencing of physical capital accumulation, human capital accumulation and innovation drives the rise in China’s aggregate income. The first stage is characterized by physical capital...

Monetary policy in mainland China differs from conventional central banking in several respects. The central bank regulates retail lending and deposit rates, influences the credit supply via window guidance, and, in recent years has even used the required reserve ratio as a tool for fine-tuning...