This paper investigates the effect of Regional Integration Agreements (RIA) within (ASEAN), a prime example of new regionalism, on FDI during the period 1995-2008. The inflow investments of ASEAN were concentrated in Singapore (46%). Therefore, the econometric model is applied to the case of...

Using a factorial design for explaining the rentabilitãþilor allows to reduce the volume of such calculations as long as the number of factors is less than the number of assets. Under these circumstances, rather than to introduce wording ARCH directly into rentabilitãþilor, estimate it will...

Exports of apparel represent the principal link of the Caribbean Basin to the international economy. These exports arise from a combination of factors, including low salaries, tax incentives, and preferential access to the North American market designed to assist US apparel firms compete better...

Energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation – be it social, economic or environment. In the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally. Energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security. Energy is linked to...

We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012, we report the reductions in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four...

We look at the substantive theory behind political forecasting models, which are generally based on theories of electoral behavior. We argue that the theory relied on for developing forecasting models should be as non-controversial as possible; what we call “core theory”. We take the lessons...

The use of election forecasting models is common practice in the US and other established democracies like France and the UK. However, not much work has been done in the area for more recent democracies. Forecasting election results in recently (re)democratized countries poses a serious...

This paper is concerned with understanding how causal effects can be identified in past data and then used to predict the future in light of the problem of context, or the fact that treatment always influences the outcome variable in combination with covariates. Structuralist and experimentalist...

The goals of this paper are to 1) simulate the ex-ante riskiness of purchasing a TCC, and 2) evaluate the efficiency of the TCC market in New York State to determine if there is evidence of under-pricing. Three VAR models are estimated using only market data available before the auction. This...