Over-the-counter (OTC) stocks are far less liquid, disclose less information, and exhibit lower institutional holdings than listed stocks. We exploit these different market conditions to test theories of cross-sectional return premiums. Compared to premiums in listed markets, the OTC illiquidity...

We structurally estimate a model in which agents' information processing biases can cause predictability in firms' asset returns and investment inefficiencies. We generalize the neoclassical investment model by allowing for two biases -- overconfidence and over-extrapolation of trends -- that...

We decompose the returns of five well-known anomalies into cash flow and discount rate news. Common patterns emerge across the five factor portfolios and their mean-variance efficient (MVE) combination. Whereas discount rate news predominates in market returns, systematic cash flow news drives...

Using proprietary data on millions of trades by retail investors, we provide the first large-scale evidence that retail short selling predicts negative stock returns. A portfolio that mimics weekly retail shorting earns an annualized risk-adjusted return of 9%. The predictive ability of retail...

Because theories in finance rely critically on what agents know, designing powerful tests of these theories requires measuring information transmission. In this review, I characterize the rapidly growing subfield directly analyzing information in financial markets. Its three hallmarks are the...

Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S....

Information markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event. They are used to predict a wide range of events, from presidential elections to printer sales. These markets frequently outperform both experts and opinion polls, and many...

I use uniquely comprehensive data on financial news events to test four predictions from an asymmetric information model of a firm's stock price. Certain investors trade on information before it becomes public; then, public news levels the playing field for other investors, increasing their...

Information markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. They can provide real-time information on the likely benefits and costs of different kinds of policies and projects.We argue that information...

Over-the-counter (OTC) stocks are far less liquid, disclose less information, and exhibit lower institutional holdings than listed stocks. We exploit these different market conditions to test theories of cross-sectional return premiums. Compared to premiums in listed markets, the OTC illiquidity...