We develop univariate regime-switching GARCH (RS-GARCH) models wherein the conditional variance switches in time from … one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a time-varying probability, specified as a function of past …

GARCH model. We extend the univariate Markov-Switching GARCH of Haas, Mittnik and Paolella (2004) into a bivariate Markov …-switching GARCH model with Conditional Constant Correlation (CCC) speci…cation within each regime, though the correlation may change …

Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too … variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH … forecasts than single-regime GARCH and that the allowance for GARCH terms besides ARCH terms can be crucial for the forecast …