This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macro-economic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

Non take-up of means-tested benefits among pensioners is of longstanding concern. It will assume increased importance from 2003 with the introduction of the new means-tested Pension Credit, which will subsume Income Support and to which about half of all pensioners are expected to be entitled....

In a critique of the Loewenstein and Prelec (1992) theory of intertemporal choice, al-Nowaihi and Dhami (2006) point out to four errors. One of the alleged errors was that the value function in prospect theory is decreasing. But it is in fact increasing. We provide a correction and a formal...

This paper outlines an approach to Bayesian semiparametric regression in multiple equation models which can be used to carry out inference in seemingly unrelated regressions or simultaneous equations models with nonparametric components. The approach treats the points on each nonparametric...

We analyse output risk in Italian agriculture over the period 1870- 1914. We use data on a set of 16 tenanted plots grouped into three farms comprising a single large estate. We estimate the degree of risk associated with each separate crop, with the portfolio of crops at the level of the plot,...

In the standard independent private values (IPV)model, each bidder’s beliefs about the values of any other bidder is represented by a unique prior. In this paper we relax this assumption and study the question of auction design in an IPV setting characterized by ambiguity: bidders have an...

We provide a novel empirical analysis of the South Korean economy that reveals large volumes of excess or 'unproductive' credit since the late 1970s, indicating that a sizeable proportion of total credit was used to refinance unprofitable projects. Our findings are consistent with the hypotheses...

The belief that both the behavior and outcomes of students are affected by their peers is important in shaping education policy. I analyze two polar education systems -tracking and mixing- and propose several criteria for their comparison. I find that tracking is the system that maximizes...

This paper proposes a Baysian approach to explore money-output causality within a logistic smooth transition VECM framework. Our empirical results provide substantial evidence that the postwar US money-output relationship is nonlinear, with regime changes mainly governed by the lagged inflation...

The available minimum wage literature, which is mostly based on US evidence, is not very useful for analyzing developing countries, where the minimum wage affects many more workers and labor institutions and law enforcement differ in important ways. The main contribution of this paper is to...