This paper presents a set of probability density functions for Euribor outturns in three months’ time, estimated from the prices of options on Euribor futures. It is the first official and freely available dataset to span the complete history of Euribor futures options, thus comprising over...

Colombia tuvo la más alta tasa de desempleo de Latinoamérica en el año 2011, 10.8% en promedio. Al interior del mercado laboral, la tasa de desempleo de las mujeres fue 1.7 veces más alta que la de los hombres para el periodo 2007 – 2011, se evidencia que los indicadores empeoran cuando se...

This paper discusses the nonparametric identification of causal direct and indirect effects of a binary treatment based on instrumental variables. We identify the indirect effect, which operates through a mediator (i.e. intermediate variable) that is situated on the causal path between the...

We introduce econometric methods to perform estimation and inference on the permanent and transitory components of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) in dynamic Markov environments. The approach is nonparametric in that it does not impose parametric restrictions on the law of motion of the...

A new bandwidth selection method for the fuzzy regression discontinuity estimator is proposed. The method chooses two bandwidths simultaneously, one for each side of the cut-off point by using a criterion based on the estimated asymptotic mean square error taking into account a second-order bias...

Recent releases of X-13ARIMA-SEATS and JDemetra+ enable their users to choose between the non-parametric X-11 and the parametric ARIMA model-based approach to seasonal adjustment for any given time series without the necessity of switching between different software packages. To ease the...

In a treatment effect model with unconfoundedness, treatment assignments are not only independent of potential outcomes given the covariates, but also given the propensity score alone. Despite this powerful dimension reduction property, adjusting for the propensity score is known to lead to an...

In addition to the wide believed positive effects on growth, employment and wages, FDIs are often perceived as sources of funds for development. Developing countries, especially low income and emerging economies, welcome FDIs because of their favorable budgetary implications. All that resulted...

This paper applies a local-linear non-parametric kernel regression technique to examine the effect of macroeconomic factors on stock market performance in Ghana. We show that the popular parametric specification in the existing literature suffers from functional misspecification. The evidence...

In communities highly dependent on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods, the common occurrence of climatic shocks can lower the marginal cost of a child and raise fertility. We test this hypothesis using longitudinal data from Madagascar. Exploiting exogenous within-district year-to-year...