This paper formally incorporates parameter uncertainty and model error into the estimation of contingent claim models and the formulation of forecasts. This allows inference on functions of interest (option values, bias functions, hedge ratios) consistent with uncertainty in both parameters and...

We examine whether bond ratings contain pricing relevant information, that is unavailable to investors form other sources, by focusing on investor reaction to rating changes that were not accompanied by any economic fundamental event - Moody's refinement of its rating system. This refinement was...