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The Relation between Predictability and Complexity: Domestic and Public Consumption in the Romanian Economy
Scutaru, Cornelia; Saman, Corina; Stanica, Cristian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting 6 (2009) 3, pp. 34-46
We continue with the problem of the relation between predictability and complexity in the Romanian economy, analyzing … other two components of GDP: domestic consumption and public consumption. The basic idea of this work is that the … unpredictability of a system gives a measure of its complexity, so that in order to predict a future state of a complex system one must …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008472205
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Investments model development with the system dynamic method
Skribans, Valerijs - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010
In the paper model of macroeconomic turnover and its possibilities for investments modelling are shown. The model consists from four blocks: in the first the theoretical model is described. In the second the model is reflected in accordance with the requirements of system dynamics method, there...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008753069
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Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647399
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Development of System Dynamic Model of Latvia’s Economic Integration in the EU
Skribans, Valerijs - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011
Joining the European Union big opportunities in the international markets have opened for Latvia. Paper purpose is to investigate influence of international integration processes on development of economy of Latvia. Latvia's incoming in EU increased the amount of received means from structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009367975
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China's March to Prosperity: Reforms to Avoid the Middle-income Trap
Koen, Vincent; Herd, Richard; Hill, Sam - Economics Department, Organisation de Coopération et … - 2013
China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011277005
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European Union Economy System Dynamic Model Development
Skribans, Valerijs - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012
The formation of the European Union (EU) is the one of the biggest political – economic events of the last 50 years. The aim of this study is to develop EU economy functioning system dynamic model. Main research method is system dynamics. General scheme of EU economy system dynamic model is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259562
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Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators
Arnostova, Katerina; Havrlant, David; Rùžièka, Luboš; … - In: Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver) 61 (2011) 6, pp. 566-583
The authors evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of six competing models at horizons of up to three quarters ahead in a pseudo-real time setup. All the models use information in monthly indicators released ahead of quarterly GDP. The authors estimate two models – averaged vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009645286
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Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators
Arnostova, Katerina; Havrlant, David; Ruzicka, Lubos; … - Česká Národní Banka - 2010
We evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of six competing models at horizons of up to three quarters ahead in a pseudo-real time setup. All the models use information in monthly indicators released ahead of quarterly GDP. We estimate two models – averaged vector autoregressions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009368563
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Predictability and Complexity : The Case of the Export and Import as GDP Components in the Romanian Economy
Saman, Corina - 2014
relation between predictability and complexity in Romanian economy, analyzing other two components of GDP: Import and Export … series of three articles exemplify the application of the theory of complexity and predictability as an alternative to model …After treating Gross Fixed Capital Formation and Domestic and Public Consumption, we continue with the problem of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059911
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The Real Exchange Rate And The U. S. Economy 2000 - 2008
Heim, John J. - Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute - 2009
exchange rate variable in consumption and investment functions, removing ambiguity as to whether they should be interpreted as … (and exports) is positive, but strongly negative for investment goods. The estimated overall negative effect of declining …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004964383