Official forecasts of international institutions are never purely model-based. Preliminary results of models are adjusted with expert opinions. What is the impact of these adjustments for the forecasts? Are they necessary to get 'optimal' forecasts? When model-based forecasts are adjusted by...

We use the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of Altig et al. (2005) to analyse the resilience of an economy in the face of external shocks. The term resilience refers to the ability of an economy to prosper in the face of shocks. The Altig et al. model was chosen because it...

Economic growth is ultimately driven by advances in productivity. In turn, productivity growth is driven by R&D and by utilisation of the public knowledge pool. This public knowledge pool is generated by universities and public research institutions. Underutilisation by firms of results from...

This CPB Discussion Paper investigates the effect of receiving a grant from the Dutch Technology Foundation STW on the research output of an individual researcher. <strong>We find no evidence that STW grant receipt increases research output for the general funding programme (OTP) whereas the results...</strong>

Since 1990, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) has used a leading indicator in preparing short-term forecasts for the Dutch economy. This paper describes some recent methodological innovations as well as the current structure and empirical results of the revised CPB...

The movement of the level of house prices in the Netherlands between 1980 and 2007 is explainable fairly well by fundamental supply and demand factors. Empirical research has shown that the overvaluation of approximately 10% that existed in 2003 shrunk to approximately 0% in 2007. This was not...