The paper develops a theoretical model such that the performance of the macroeconomy is consistent with optimizing the behavior of rational individuals. It demonstrates that, in principle, it is possible to convert existing trade barriers into tariffs by using the price-gap method. In practice,...

This new edition reflects recent advances in time-series econometrics, such as out-of-sample forecasting techniques, non-linear time-series models, Monte Carlo analysis, and bootstrapping. Numerous examples from fields ranging from agricultural economics to transnational terrorism illustrate...