This paper concerns the gains from international trade in risky assets, with an application to the United States and Japan. I examine the role of international financial markets in diversifying the risks associated with the aggregate consumption opportunities of a nation (social risk) and the...

We establish rigorously the existence and properties of the stationary probability distribution which characterizes the accumulation of non-contingent financial claims by a risk averse individual who confronts random wage fluctuations and incomplete insurance markets. We show that there exists a...

It is well known that modeling exchange rates is difficult. Meese and Rogoff's (1983) results show that a random walk model performs as well as or better than a variety of structural models, where the forecasts from the structural models are based on the actual values of the future explanatory...

A model for U.S. macroeconomic time series that has been used for forecasting for several years is described in some detail. The model is a multivariate Bayesian autoregression, with allowance for conditional heteroskedasticity, stochastic time-variation in parameters, and non-normality of...

This paper presents estimates indicating that, for aggregate U.S. stock market data 1871-1986, a long historical average of real earnings is a good predictor of the present value of future real dividends. This is true even when the information contained in stock prices is taken into account. We...

Let P_{r} denote the convex hull of the integer points in the disc of radius r. We prove that the number of vertices of P_{r} is essentially r^{2/3} as r approaches infinity.