The Great Recession had the most severe impact on state tax revenues of any downturn since the Great Depression. We hypothesize that states with more progressive tax structures are more vulnerable to economic downturns, and that progressivity and income volatility may interact to amplify the...

[...]Although our analysis compares outcomes before and afterPRWORA, it should be made clear that because the formalstate plan for welfare reform did not take effect until 1999, weare not really evaluating welfare reform in New York City.Instead, our results primarily reflect the net effect of...