It is widely agreed that a fiscal rule should boost discipline and credibility. A rule should also reduce macroeconomic volatility and be easily understood. Toward such ends, a government may run structural surpluses. In so doing, the government accumulates a precautionary cushion of assets on...

A DSGE model is used to examine whether including the exchange rate in the central bank’s policy rule can improve economic performance. Smoothing the exchange rate helps both financially-robust economies and financially-vulnerable emerging economies in handling risk premium shocks and, given a...

This paper presents a model for the financial sector’s vulnerability and integrates it into a macroeconomic framework commonly used in monetary policymaking. The main question to answer with the integrated model is whether central banks should explicitly include the financial stability...

The purpose of this paper is to find a set of estimates for the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (<em>NAIRU</em>) for Chile. Measuring the <em>NAIRU</em> permits to build the unemployment gap, which provides a complementary measure of aggregate demand and of the output gap. It is generally used by...

This paper makes stochastic projections of the Central Bank of Chile’s (CBCh) balance sheet (stocks and flows) starting from the actual current negative net worth. These projections incorporate the effect on the balance sheet of several macroeconomic variables as well as alternative policy...