aggregation of the underlying micro equations, and controlling for the unobserved influences on investment that are commonly …

predictability, consistent with the lack of systematic improvement in out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to a random walk …The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing … have better medium-term forecasting properties, careful attention must be paid to finite-sample biases in assessing …

Empirical evidence on the distribution of relative price changes almost invariably reveals high kurtosis and a tendency … toward right-skewness. Simple mixed distribution models including volatile and infrequently adjusted prices can account for … these and other common features, such as correlation between the mean and variance of relative prices. In such circumstances …

anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters … central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …