The natural interest rate is of great relevance to central banks, but it is difficult to measure. We show that in a standard microfounded monetary model, the natural interest rate co-moves with a transformation of the money demand that can be computed from actual data. The co-movement is of a...

This paper investigates whether or not the LM techniques proposed to test the null hypothesis of linearity against GARCH, bilinear (BL) and Joint GARCH-BL alternatives separately, have desirable finite sample properties. The result of a Monte carlo simulation study show that their sizes are...

This paper investigates the relationships among real, monetary and financial variables in the Australian economy using seasonally unadjusted monthly data series spanning the period January 1978 to June 1994.

Since an analysis of seasonal fluctuation appeared to shed light on the nature of business cycles, testing for seasonal pattern in time series has been given considerable attention in the recent literature. It is also well-known that many economic and financial time series exhibit strong...

There as been on-going debate and empirical investigation in the literature as to whether or not the term structure contains information about future inflation. In this paper, the authors present new evidence about the information in the term structure of interest rates about future inflation in...

It has been argued that research on market efficiency should be evaluated in terms of whether it improves our ability to predict the time series of security returns. Much recent work has addressed the issue of the presence of long memory components in stock prices because of the controversial...

This paper extends the Bayesian Model Averaging framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA) methodology and then test it using simulated data. Simulation...

This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external income?the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers?from major oil-exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be...

This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By...

The paper assesses estimates of term structure models for the United States. To this end, this paper first describes the mathematics underlying two types of term structure models, namely the Nelson-Siegel and Cox, Ingersoll and Ross family of models, and the estimation techniques. It then...