redundancy and diversity of equipment in an effort to lower the probability of failure and therefore risk. However, it has long …

Teaching probability can be challenging because the mathematical formulas often are too abstract and complex for the … example, the game of roulette can be an exciting application for teaching probability concepts. In this paper, we implement a … to gain better insights into the corresponding probability structures. We use the model to simulate a particular betting …

-likelihood estimates of probability distribution parameters show that expected purse earnings follow an exponential distribution with a …

. However, this job protection effect is reduced if the expected probability of a setback increases, and if the expected … duration and size of a recession grows. If a severe recession is expected with a high probability the option to wait with …

of the probability of a horse winning - longshots are overbet, while favorites are underbet. Neoclassical explanations of … misperceptions of probability drive the favorite-longshot bias, as suggested by Prospect Theory. …

In terms of risk measurement, probability and quantile risk estimation have developed enormously in the past decade … their risk profile accounting for losses (quantiles) at a given likelihood (probability) and a given time frame (holding … series to model the tail returns, allowing them to examine low-probability (out-of-sample) events for single-period horizons …

We compare preferences for temporal resolution when uncertainty is resolved over a probability rather than a value. In … motivates an explanation for it that we call "process utility", which highlights the importance of information processing when …

donations, and which individuals will give consecutive gifts over several years. Statistical modeling builds on current research …