The article is forthcoming in <A href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VFD-4PNM471-3&_user=499884&_coverDate=09%2F15%2F2007&_alid=770199288&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_cdi=6008&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_ct=1&_acct=C000024499&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=499884&md5=8492c97b78d795d5deec06a94b66422d">Labour Economics</A>.<p><P>

We study whether and when parameter-driven time-varying parameter models lead to forecasting gains over observation-driven models. We consider dynamic count, intensity, duration, volatility and copula models, including new specifications that have not been studied earlier in the literature. In...

Do shareholders of acquiring companies profit from acquisitions, or do acquiring CEOs overbid and destroy shareholder value? Answering this question is difficult since the hypothetical counterfactual is hard to determine. We exploit merger contests to address the identification issue. In those...

We characterize the relation between corporate asset structure and capital structure by exploiting variation in the salability of tangible assets. Theory suggests that tangibility increases borrowing capacity because it allows creditors to more easily repossess a firm’’s assets. Tangible...

This paper examines the impact of coinsurance exemption for prescription medicines applied to elderly individuals in Spain after retirement. To evaluate this coinsurance change we use a rich administrative dataset that links pharmaceutical consumption and hospital discharge records for the full...

Cooperative games with partial cooperation cover a wider rank of real world situations than the classic model of cooperative games where every subset of a set of agents can form a coalition to execute the game. In this paper, the set of feasible coalitions which models the partial cooperation...

We decompose capital flows--both debt and equity--into public and private components and study their relationship with productivity growth. This exercise reveals that international capital flows are mainly shaped by government decisions and sovereign to sovereign transactions. Specifically, we...

This paper develops a novel approach to modeling and forecasting realized volatility (RV) measures based on copula functions. Copula-based time series models can capture relevant characteristics of volatility such as nonlinear dynamics and long-memory type behavior in a flexible yet parsimonious...

Experts can rely on statistical model forecasts when creating their own forecasts. Usually it is not known what experts actually do. In this paper we focus on three questions, which we try to answer given the availability of expert forecasts and model forecasts. First, is the expert forecast...