Showing 401 - 410 of 1,739
We develop a systematic framework for the joint modelling of returns and multiple daily realised measures. We assume a linear state space representation for the log realised measures, which are noisy and biased estimates of the log integrated variance, at least due to Jensen's inequality. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322509
Patton and Timmermann (2011, 'Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds', <I>Journal of Business & Economic Statistics</I>, forthcoming) propose a set of useful tests for forecast rationality or optimality under squared error loss, including an easily implemented test based on a...</i>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322510
The rapid growth in the foreign-born population in many high and middle-income countries in recent decades has prompted much research on the socio-economic determinants and impacts of immigration. This paper investigates the relationship between the stock of foreign population by nationality...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322994
A Direct Monte Carlo (DMC) approach is introduced for posterior simulation in the Instrumental Variables (IV) model with one possibly endogenous regressor, multiple instruments and Gaussian errors under a flat prior. This DMC method can also be applied in an IV model (with one or multiple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322995
We analyze the behavior of experts who quote forecasts for monthly SKU-level sales data where we compare data before and after the moment that experts received different kinds of feedback on their behavior. We have data for 21 experts located in as many countries who make SKU-level forecasts for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322996
According to theory, the effect of carriers' transport costs on freight prices depends on the directional imbalance in transport flows. Using data on inland waterway transport, we demonstrate that when the ratio of export to import trips doubles, the marginal effect of carriers' transport costs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322997
We develop a new simultaneous time series model for volatility and dependence with long memory (fractionally integrated) dynamics and heavy-tailed densities. Our new multivariate model accounts for typical empirical features in financial time series while being robust to outliers or jumps in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009386532
The Eurozone debt crisis raises the issue of measuring and monitoring interconnected sovereign credit risk. We propose a novel empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional failure for Euro Area sovereigns. Our model captures all the salient features of the data,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009386533
There are two important reasons for consumers to spend gift certificates differently than gifts in cash or non-gift income: a) they are forced to change their shopping pattern because of the conditions imposed by the issuer of the certificates, or b) they purposely separate gift certificates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009391879
A situation in which a finite set of agents can generate certain payoffs by cooperation can be described by a cooperative game with transferable utility (or simply a TU-game) where each agent is represented by one player in the game. In this paper, we assume that one agent can be represented by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009391880