This contribution to a Festschrift for Warren Samuels argues that in giving policy advice economists should seek diversification and consider the probability of error, and also the loss function and risk aversion. And since advocacy of a theory is in a relevant way like a policy decision, the...

This paper surveys the monetarist position on various aspects of American monetary policy in an informal way and provides the personal reactions of a participant observer in this debate. It emphasizes the intellectual milieu in which monetarism emerged, the background factors that facilitated...

Many leading methodologists have described the central role that Milton Friedman''s 1953 essay (henceforth referred to as F53) has played in methodological discussions. (See for instance Daniel Hammond, 1998; Kevin Hoover; 2001; Roger Backhouse 2002.) However, it does not necessarily follow that it has...

The differential response of cash reserves of member banks and nonmember banks not subject to the 1936-37 increase in reserve requirements is estimated to determine whether the 1937-38 recession was caused by the increase in reserve requirements. We identify 17 states that maintained constant...

This essay discusses some, but by no means all the important problems that arise in econometric testing of econometric models. Specifically, it disusses the reliabilty of the underlying data and their processing, the problem of relating theories and data, ceteris paribus conditions and...

When looked at individually there is little reason to think that economists lack integrity and are dishonest. Yet, when we look at academic papers written by economists we can see biases. This paper tries to reconcile these two observations by arguing that the constraints the profession sets on...

In der Debatte um die Bedeutung schwankender Exporterlöse für das Wirtschaftswachstum in Entwicklungsländern wird oft das Argument gebraucht, Exporterlösinstabilität führe zu schwankenden Investitionsgüterimporten, da diese eine Funktion der Importkapazität seien. In vielen...

This paper examines the income and allocation effects of an appropriate export diversification policy by means of a computable general equilibrium model for Colombia. This kind of policy is often envisaged as a counter to unstable export earnings which are considered to be detrimental to...