This essay discusses some, but by no means all the important problems that arise in econometric testing of econometric models. Specifically, it disusses the reliabilty of the underlying data and their processing, the problem of relating theories and data, ceteris paribus conditions and...

When looked at individually there is little reason to think that economists lack integrity and are dishonest. Yet, when we look at academic papers written by economists we can see biases. This paper tries to reconcile these two observations by arguing that the constraints the profession sets on...

In der Debatte um die Bedeutung schwankender Exporterlöse für das Wirtschaftswachstum in Entwicklungsländern wird oft das Argument gebraucht, Exporterlösinstabilität führe zu schwankenden Investitionsgüterimporten, da diese eine Funktion der Importkapazität seien. In vielen...

This paper examines the income and allocation effects of an appropriate export diversification policy by means of a computable general equilibrium model for Colombia. This kind of policy is often envisaged as a counter to unstable export earnings which are considered to be detrimental to...

This paper evaluates the impact of rising international interest rates on the South Korean economy during the seventies with the help of an econometric macro model. The results show that there was an induced reduction of investment and GDP, yet inflationary pressures were somewhat mitigated by a...

Comparing inflation rates internationally, one finds a number of Latin American countries in the lead. Therefore, when investigating inflation in LDCs, it has become common practice to refer to these countries as prime examples. Mainly two theories have been put forward to explain Latin American...

The instability of export earnings in LDCs and its presumably harmful economic effects have been broadly discussed in the economic literature and among policy makers in international meetings. In analyzing these effects, the destabilization of producer incomes and farmers' risk response play a...

The role of the futures markets in stabilising spot prices has been widely discussed. However, the success of these markets in performing the stabilising function critically depends on whether they are efficient (Fama 181, page 383) in the sense that the futures prices fully reflect the...

A number of recent studies have shown that the short term level of economic activity and employment in primary commodity exporting countries is particularly vulnerable to price fluctuations in world commodity markets. The authorities in such countries, in seeking to maintain output and...