The forward discount puzzle refers to the robust empirical finding that foreign excess returns are predictable. We investigate if expectations errors are the main cause of this predictability using the serial dependence pattern of excess returns implied by economic models as identification...

This paper investigates, both in finite samples and asymptotically, statistical inference on predictive regressions where time series are generated by present value models of asset prices. We show that regression-based tests, including optimal robust tests such as Jasson and Moreira's...

This paper develops new inference methods for testing the expectations hypothesis in a general econometric framework. In particular, we consider nonparametric tests of the predictability of excess returns in the presence of MA disturbances. We discuss several alternatives of aggregation and...

Although Bermudan options are routinely priced by simulation and least-squares methods using lower and dual upper bounds, the latter are hardly optimized. In this paper, we optimize recursive upper bounds, which are more tractable than the original/nonrecursive ones, and derive two new results:...

This article proposes a class of goodness-of-fit tests for the autocorrelation function of a time series process, including those exhibiting long-range dependence. Test statistics for composite hypotheses are functionals of a (approximated) martingale transformation of the Bartlett's Tp-process...

Whittle pseudo-maximum likelihood estimates of parameters for stationary time series have been found to be consistent and asumptotically normal in the presence of long-range dependence. Generalizing the definition of the memory parameter d, we extend these results to include possibly...

We establish valid Edgeworth expansions for the distribution of smoothed nonparametric spectral estimates, and of studentized versions of linear statistics such as the same mean, where the studentization employs such a nonparametric spectral estimate. Particular attention is paid to the spectral...

This paper explains the losses (or errors) associated with pricing an American option in a multi-factor setting when using the true model but a suboptimal exercise strategy as a barrier option (a calibrated misspecified model, e.g., Black-Scholes). Pricing American options in a multi-factor...

Least-squares methods enable us to price Bermudan-style options by Monte Carlo simulation. They are based on estimating the option continuation value by least squares. We show that the Bermudan price is maximized when this continuation value is estimated near the exercise boundary, which is...

We consider cointegration rank estimation for a p-dimensional Fractional Vector Error Correction Model. We propose a new two-step procedure which allows testing for further long-run equilibrium relations with possibly different persistence levels. The first step consists in estimating the...