The Cross Entropy method is a well-known adaptive importance sampling method for rare-event probability estimation, which requires estimating an optimal importance sampling density within a parametric class. In this article we estimate an optimal importance sampling density within a wider...

This note presents the R package bayesGARCH (Ardia, 2007) which provides functions for the Bayesian estimation of the parsimonious and effective GARCH(1,1) model with Student-<I>t</I> innovations. The estimation procedure is fully automatic and thus avoids the tedious task of tuning a MCMC sampling...</i>

We present new results for the likelihood-based analysis of the dynamic factor model that possibly includes intercepts and explanatory variables. The latent factors are modelled by stochastic processes. The idiosyncratic disturbances are specified as autoregressive processes with mutually...

The paper proposes a model for the dynamics of stock prices that incorporates increased asset co-movements during extreme market downturns in a continuous-time setting. The model is based on the construction of a multivariate diffusion with a pre-specified stationary density with tail...

The Wishart autoregressive (WAR) process is a powerful tool to model multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) with correlation risk and derive closed-form solutions in various asset pricing models. However, making inferences of the WAR stochastic volatility (WAR-SV) model is challenging because...

We investigate the significance of fundamentals variables and uncertainty of appropriate models in one-, two-, four-, and eight-quarter ahead forecasts of quarterly yen-dollar real exchange rates by using 16 fundamentals-based models and the random walk model. Our empirical results show...

We prove explicit error bounds for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to compute expectations of functions with unbounded stationary variance. We assume that there is a p∈(1,2) so that the functions have finite Lp-norm. For uniformly ergodic Markov chains we obtain error bounds with the...

The generic and simple version of SALUS (System Approach to Land Use Sustainability) crop model was recently integrated in the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) cropping system model to provide an alternative approach to more complex crop models without the need for a...

We use micro data from the Romanian Labor Force Survey to analyze the effect of the restructuring process on the employment dynamics of urban residents in the Romanian labor market. We analyze the way personal characteristics influence individuals' ability to adjust to labor market...