This paper studies if workers infer from correlation about causal effects in the context of the part-time wage penalty. Differences in hourly pay between full-time and part-time workers are strongly driven by worker selection and systematic sorting. Ignoring these selection effects can lead to...

This study analyzes the effects of binding local speed limits on crash frequency on German motorways. Various geo-spatial data sources are merged to a new data set providing rich information on characteristics for 500-meter segments of large parts of the German motorway network. The empirical...

Armstrong et al. (2022) review the empirical methods used in the accounting literature to draw causal inferences. They document a growing number of studies using quasi-experimental methods and provide a critical perspective on this trend as well as the use of these methods in the accounting...

The paper provides estimates of an error-correction model of the demand for narrow money (M1) and broad money (M2) in Mozambique. In addition, it assesses whether the rapid growth in money balances during 1996–97 represents a structural break or can be associated with the rapidly expanding...

This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests...

This paper tests a model of the role of stock markets in current account dynamics, developed in a companion paper. With U.S. data, the model performs better than the same model without stock markets. An insight given by the model is that the current account might help predict future stock market...

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation...

The paper examines the direction of causality between total government expenditure and revenue in oil-dependent GCC countries by utilizing a cointegration and error-correction modeling framework, and by calculating a variance decomposition analysis. In addition, it presents impulse responses to...

We estimate the respective contributions of institutions, geography, and trade in determining cross-country income levels using recently developed instruments for institutions and trade. Our results indicate that the quality of institutions ""trumps"" everything else. Controlling for...