A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock and Watson (2004), Clark and McCracken (2010), and Jore et al. (2010). Existing studies of this forecasting strategy exclude Dynamic...

We estimate a small open-economy DSGE model for Norway with two specifications of monetary policy: a simple instrument rule and optimal policy based on an intertemporal loss function. The empirical fit of the model with optimal policy is as good as the model with a simple rule. This result is...

In this paper we provide a broad outline of the forecasting and policy analysis system adopted at Norges Bank.

Norges Bank is one of few central banks publishing an interest rate fore- cast. This paper discusses how we derive and communicate the interest rate forecast. To produce the forecasts, the Bank uses a medium-sized small open economy DSGE model - NEMO. Judgments and information from other sources...

In this paper we study the transmission for capital depreciation shocks. The existing literature in the Real Business Cycle tradition has concluded that these shocks are irrelevant for business cycle fluctuations. We show that these shocks are potentially important drivers of aggregate...