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indicators. An evaluation of their relative accuracy suggests that the VAR model's forecasting performance is superior to that of … hampering efforts at prediction. In this paper, we present a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by … constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between leading indicators representing expectations, investments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063677
hampering efforts at prediction. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by … constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between leading indicators representing expectations, orders … causality tests. The VAR model is then used to derive the dynamic paths of adjustment of global chip sales in response to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005091190
This contribution investigates the business cycles of Switzerland compared to its five neighboring countries Germany, Austria, Italy, France and Liechtenstein. In contrast to the widespread notion of small countries “importing” the business cycle from bigger neighbors, it is shown that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011447280
Business tendency survey indicators are widely recognized as a key instrument for business cycle forecasting. Their … leading indicator property is assessed with regard to forecasting industrial production in Russia and Germany. For this … purpose, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified and estimated to construct forecasts. As the potential number of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286389
Business tendency survey indicators are widely recognized as a key instrument for business cycle forecasting. Their … leading indicator property is assessed with regard to forecasting industrial production in Russia and Germany. For this … purpose, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified and estimated to construct forecasts. As the potential number of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008800899
Business tendency survey indicators are widely recognized as a key instrument for business cycle forecasting. Their … leading indicator property is assessed with regard to forecasting industrial production in Russia and Germany. For this … purpose, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified and estimated to construct forecasts. As the potential number of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838973
This contribution investigates the business cycles of Switzerland compared to its five neighboring countries Germany, Austria, Italy, France and Liechtenstein. In contrast to the widespread notion of small countries "importing" the business cycle from bigger neighbors, it is shown that the real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011427978
This paper analyzes which factors are driving the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. Using the results of a poll among survey participants as well as Granger causality tests we identify three groups of influence factors: other sentiment indicators, financial variables and real economy data. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297299
the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011916879
We investigate whether the KOF Economic Barometer - a leading indicator released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute - is useful for short-term prediction of quarterly year-on-year real GDP growth in Switzerland. Using a real-time data set consisting of historical vintages of GDP data and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011933267