Frontmatter -- Contents -- Streetwise -- Introduction -- PART ONE: Market Behavior -- Challenge to Judgment (Fall 1974) -- The Dividend Puzzle (Winter 1976) -- The Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Market Model (Winter 1981) -- Factors in New York Stock Exchange Security Returns, 1931-1979...

This is the first of two articles which apply certain principles of inference to a practical, financial question. The present article argues and cites arguments which contend that decision making should be Bayesian, that classical (R. A. Fisher, Neyman-Pearson) inference can be highly misleading...

The present article shows how Bayesians should shift beliefs among a family of models concerning the probability distribution of daily changes in the Standard & Poor 500 Index, given a particular sample. The preceding article in this issue showed that classical (R. A. Fisher, Neyman-Pearson)...