This paper shows that stock volatility increases during recessions and financial crises from 1834-1987. The evidence reinforces the notion that stock prices are an important business cycle indicator. Using two different statistical models for stock volatility, I show that volatility increases...

This paper analyzes the behavior of stock return volatility using daily data from 1885 through 1987. The October 1987 stock market crash was unusual in many ways relative to prior history. In particular, stock volatility jumped dramatically during and after the crash, but it returned to lower....

This paper analyzes the relation of stock volatility with real and nominal macroeconomic volatility, financial leverage, stock trading activity, default risk, and firm profitability using monthly data from 1857-1986. An important fact, previously noted by Officer [l973], is that stock return...

Recent work by Said and Dickey (1984 ,1985) , Phillips (1987), and Phillips and Perron(1988) examines tests for unit roots in the autoregressive part of mixed autoregressive-integrated-moving average (ARIHA) models (tests for stationarity). Monte Carlo experiments show that these unit root tests...

Academic finance has grown and evolved in the 46 years since the Journal of Financial Economics (JFE) began publishing papers. This paper uses detailed data on the 2,858 papers written by 3,152 different authors published in the JFE from 1974-2019. Cumulatively, these papers have received...

Bull and bear markets are a common way of describing cycles in equity prices. To fully describe such cycles one would need to know the data generating process (DGP) for equity prices. We begin with a definition of bull and bear markets and use an algorithm based on it to sort a given time series...