In this paper we propose a model for decision making under risk that is capable of predicting empirically observed preference patterns that have been found to be incompatible with the expected utility model. The model departs from the classical expected utility model by allowing utilities to...

This paper is the first of a two-paper study of fairness issues for decisions that affect the benefits received and the risks encountered by a population. The study examines fairness for individuals and for homogeneous groups within the population. It considers fairness both for population...

An approach is proposed that is useful for long term forecasting of market penetration of new technologies, fuel price and availability, business performance, etc. The central idea is to systematically solicit experts' opinion in the form of subjective probability distributions in making future...

Dispersive equity is concerned with the impact of life-threatening risks from alternative policy decisions on homogeneous groups in a population. It is not addressed to the disutility of various numbers of fatalities that might occur, but rather to how fatalities are distributed over the groups....

"Public agencies are very keen on amassing statistics---they collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But what you must never forget is that every one of those figures comes in the first instance from the village watchman, who just...